Independent Academic Studies
Whisper Numbers Still Beating the Best Minds on Wall Street
The whisper number data collected and published by WhisperNumber.com continues to provide greater returns when used as an investment vehicle, and has a greater impact on stock movement than analysts consensus estimates.
Financial statement users could anticipate in real time when whisper earnings Forecasts are a superior information source relative to analystsí forecasts, and whisper forecasts were more accurate than the analysts' forecasts for the full sample and for all industries except the non-S&P 500 mineral and construction sector.
These declarations are supported by not one but four published independent academic studies of WhisperNumber.com data.
The first study released in late 2005 was titled 'Conflict in Whispers and Analysts Forecast: Which One Should Be Your Guide', and the second release was in mid-2007 titled "Do Bulls and Bears Listen to Whispers", both courtesy of San Jose State University College of Business and Pepperdine University, and published in the Financial Decisions journal.
The third and fourth studies were published in 2008 and 2011 respectively. One titled 'Hearing the Whispers' was published in the Financial Advisor Magazine, and the other titled "Explaining the Surprising Performance of Whisper Forecasts of Earnings", published in Advances in Quantitative Analysis of Finance and Accounting. Both courtesy of Susan Machuga, Univeristy of Hartford Barney School of Business, Karen Teitel, College of Holy Cross, and Ray Pfeiffer, University of Massachusetts.
To learn more about these studies and how WhisperNumber.com has used the results to develop their unique trading tool called 'Whisper Reactors
', select from one of the following links.
Published Academic Studies Supporting 20 Years of Proven Data
'Explaining the Surprising Performance of Whisper Forecasts of Earnings' (Advances in Quantitative Analysis of Finance and Accounting)
Whisper forecasts are more likely to be present when analystsí forecasts are pessimistic and management has not issued a forecast; whisper forecasts are more accurate than analystsí forecasts when analystsí forecasts are extremely pessimistic; and whispers have incremental information content when analystsí forecasts are pessimistic. If these findings are stable and generally representative, financial statement users could anticipate in real time when whisper earnings forecasts are a superior information source relative to analystsí forecasts. This is potentially valuable information to market participants.
'Hearing the Whispers' (Financial Advisor Magazine)
Overall, whisper forecasts were more accurate than the analysts' forecasts for the full sample and for all industries except the non-S&P 500 mineral and construction sector. Interestingly, for non-S&P 500 companies, the median whisper forecast was perfectly accurate for three classifications: for manufacturing; for the finance, insurance and real estate area; and for public administration.
'Conflict in Whispers and Analysts Forecast: Which One Should Be Your Guide' (Financial Decisions Journal)
Results of this study conclude investor estimates for quarterly earnings (whisper numbers) provide greater returns when used as an investment vehicle, and have a greater impact on stock movement than analysts consensus estimates. Click here to learn more.
'Do Bulls and Bears Listen to Whispers' (Financial Decisions Journal)
A post-earnings announcement drift associated with the market reaction to analyst forecasts errors remains a puzzle. This study suggests that whispers help to explain part of the puzzle. The study examines the market reaction to whispers and analysts in bull and bear markets, and finds that investors listen to whispers in the bull market and whispers help explain the post-announcement drift. Click here to learn more.
Financial Decisions (journal) and Academic Studies:
'Conflict in Whispers and Analysts Forecast: Which One Should Be Your Guide'
'Do Bulls and Bears Listen to Whispers?'
Janis Zaima, Professor of Finance
San Jose State University
College of Business, Dept of Accounting & Finance
Susan Machuga, Assistant Professor of Accounting
University of Hartford, Barney School of Business
Since our start in 1998, we have collected earnings expectations (whisper numbers) from traders and investors that register with our site. Whether you call it 'wisdom of crowds', 'social media analytics', or 'crowd sourcing', this methodology has proven itself over the past twenty years as a more useful and valued earnings indicator. And traders know estimates don't move markets, expectations move markets.
The firm was founded in 1998 by John Scherr, with the belief that the aggregated data collected from individual investors & traders would prove more timely, accurate, and useful than the analysts consensus estimates. The WhisperNumber expectation is regularly referenced in notable financial media sources such as CNBC, Fox Business, Forbes, Barron's, The Wall Street Journal, CNN Money, The Street, and Bloomberg, amongst others.
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